Forecasting
Predictive modeling
Compartmental, ML, and ensemble forecasts for respiratory illness, vaccine uptake, and hospital surge.
Active models
12
Forecast horizon
4 wks
Surge prob · 14d
22%
Ensemble WIS
0.42
Live forecasts
- Influenza A — peak ETAensemble · 6 contributorsWk 51 ± 1.4stable
- RSV pediatric admitsGA, FL, AL+18% vs 4wk avgwatch
- COVID wastewater signalAtlanta metrorising · low basestable
- Norovirus outbreak riskNorth districtelevated · LTCwatch
Model registry
- SEIR-Flu v3.2compartmentalvalidated
- RSV-GBM ensemblegradient boostingvalidated
- ED-Surge LSTMdeep learningshadow
- WW-NowcastKalman filtervalidated
Scenarios
- Baseline · current vaccine uptake
- +10% vaccination coverage by Oct
- Early antiviral pre-positioning
- School closure trigger at 12% TPR